Monday, June 19, 2017

An Open Letter to the Yankee Fan Base (aka Who's on First.)

Who's on First.

Please note there is no question mark there.  Hopefully most of you know that Who is on first, and What is on second...

(If you don't know these basic facts, please go do a YouTube search.  We'll wait.)

There's a certain beauty to the "Who's on First?" comedy act that never gets old. Perhaps because of the skill of the presenters, it always feels fresh, although they must have done the act a million times over their career.

To be certain, one part that makes it so memorable is that the oft-forgotten third part of the act - you, the viewer - understand the frustration of the Costello character while still being 'in' on the joke.

To some degree, this year with the New York Yankees seems to leave most people in one of the two groups: the passive third party, who understands what's going on on the face of things; and the exasperated and confused Costello, shouting and slamming his bat down in frustrated confusion.  Of course, there's also the Abbott of the trio: Brian Cashman, who keeps calmly repeating the simple truth: Who is on first.

"When you pay off the first baseman every month, who gets the money?"
"Every dollar of it!"

Who is on First? (The Problem that isn't as bad as you think)

So go back to the nascent days of early spring training, before there were games to be played, before Judge and Bird had arrived at George M. Steinbrenner Field.  There were a lot of questions swirling about - Would Greg Bird be physically ready? Would Joe Girardi platoon him with Chris Carter?  What was the outlook for Tyler Austin with Chris Carter in the mix?

Obviously the purchase of Carter was a dumpster bin pickup, something you can't not pickup for the low price on the sticker.   So what if you already have depth there, right?  Insurance is a great thing to have in a system.  (Full honesty, I still hate the purchase, but that's neither here nor there.)

Suddenly the purchase seemed to be sagacious with the injury to Tyler Austin, and then suddenly it seemed like many baseball problems to have worked it self out.  Bird and Carter at first, Austin to the DL.  All that was left was if Bird was the everyday 1B, or would there be a platoon?

Greg Bird quickly answered that question, slamming balls left and right, leading Spring Training in HRs.  Joe Girardi exclaimed that he was our everyday 1B.  Problem solved.

Which is usually when tragedy strikes.  Enter: The Foul Ball.

After fouling a ball off his ankle, Bird took a stint on the DL, returning to mediocre numbers that never improved.  Most people who listen to enough ball players, or have been ball players, will tell you that players in a slump have to hit themselves out of it.  So it went on...and on...and on...before finally the team confirmed that the bruised ankle was still bothering Bird.

By this time many Yankee fans were in a death spiral regarding Bird.  He's no good, he's useless, he can't hit, they need to sit him down.  Why are they not playing Carter?  He hit 41 home runs last year!!

After Bird finally went onto the DL, it was again Carter's turn to provide production at 1B.  Except Yankee fans forgot: Carter doesn't provide production, he provides power in bunches.  Not bunches like 'lots and lots!!!", but bunches as in four HR here, five HR there, and lots of wasted ABs and strikeouts in between.

And so many Yankee fans were dismayed when Carter went up, struck out, and walked back to the dugout.  Often.

But here's the thing: that wasn't a surprise to Cashman and the front office.  That was part of Carter's stats, and why his team released him rather than even go to arbitration with him.  His decent defensive numbers and healthy HR numbers didn't balance out his horrid offensive stats for the Twins, who placed him in the bargain bin for the Yankees to pick up once he'd been marked down a few times.

"SO THEN WHY DON'T THEY GET RID OF HIM??" (Aka "Who's on first??!") many of you might be asking.  "WE NEED PRODUCTION AT 1B!!!"

Sure, increased production would be super.  It's not like Cashman and Joe haven't said that outright.  But here's the dark truth: there is no replacement for 1B that's ready for the majors right now in the originization.  Austin is certainly on his way - but he's still in what is essentially his spring training.  So there is no replacement for Carter, and that's not even the darkest of truths:

The Yankees are not going to do anything about 1B.

Unless something significant happens, it's not the problem you think it is.  Carter is providing more or less exactly what his numbers said he would give, short a few home runs (although he's starting to pick up as his everyday play has become the norm), and he provides an experienced glove at first.  As long as the rest of the line up can carry the dark hole of production at first, there isn't a problem.

We've seen Joe's work around for it as well: Holliday at first, trading security defensively for a few games for consistent production.  But that's not a long term answer, and that's why Refsnyder isn't there more often as well.  Carter makes plays those two probably wouldn't and has played solidly, with only two errors in 47 appearances.

"...who did I say was playing third base?"
"No, Who's on first!"
"What's on second?"
"What's on second."
"I Don't Know."
"He's on third..."

The 'Problem' that isn't a problem - 3B.

Likewise, it seems like the news of Glybermania being stalled with his upcoming Tommy John surgery has fans again trying to solve the biggest problem that doesn't exist: Chase Headley.

Let's be clear - Headley is, and was always going to be, the NYY 3B this season.  None of the Baby Bombers were ready for everyday service at the majors.  That's why (and this will be a theme in this section) none of them were on the fourth man roster.  Not Torres, not Wade, and not Andujar. That doesn't mean they're not the future of the team, in some capacity, but none were ready to replace Headley now, nor do so every day this season.

Here's another thought for you: In every case of "do we call him up or let him develop more in the minors" this season, all but one time the front office chose development over timeliness.  That exception was Jordan Montgomery, who has shown that time spent in the minors to develop more was unnecessary. BUT - the choice to do so cost the organization young Johnny Barbato to make room on the 40 man for Montgomery.

Headley provides good/solid defense at the hot corner, is affordable while doing it, and over the course of the year will give you decent production.  His flash in the pan All-Star year was more or less a fluke, but he's another unsung 'good player'.

We as fans flock to the stars, Gods among men who can swat balls into concession stands, and steal bases like Bonnie and Clyde, and pitchers who can take nasty pitches and turn them into strike out gold.  It's nothing new, and it's part of the joy of baseball - "Did you see how far he hit it??" "That pitch was nasty!!".

But you can't afford to field 9 baseball Gods everyday, no team is that rich, nor that stupid.  If you're lucky, you have two or three, and most teams will settle for one.  Filling in the rest of that roster are a combination of has-beens, soon-to-bes, and everyday good players.  They're the unsung glue that make a team whole.  That's where Headley falls in.  His contract runs through 2018, and sometime between now and then, a Torres or a Andujar will be ready to replace him.

Until then, he's your 3B.  Accept it and move on, because it's not the problem you think it is. 




"I said I don't give a damn!
"Oh, that's our shortstop..."


Perception vs Reality (aka Today and Tomorrow)

So the big issue we need to clarify is this: THIS. IS. A. REBUILD. YEAR.

Has the team said so, in so many words? Probably not.  The words Cashman likes seem to be "Today and Tomorrow".

Be successful today, while building a dynasty for tomorrow.

Let's be clear - the Yankees have bought into the youth movement in a huge way, but they can't go full rebuild the way the Cubs might have gone.  The fan base isn't there to accept a few losing seasons to develop the team in such a manner to build a farm system that will deliver you a young team that can produce for several years.

So we have the team we have now, which on paper was a middle of the pack team.  No one, from the sports prognosticators on FS1 and ESPN, to the Yankee front office, expected this year to be so amazing.

The fans smell gold in the water, because the numbers the team is putting up certainly merit a belief that they have a reasonable case to make for a post season berth.  So obviously, now that we're contenders again, after those few years of pain and suffering with only a Wild Card loss to show for it, we should go all in!  THIS IS THE YEAR!!

Except ... It's not the year.  Maybe it becomes the first year, but it's not THE year.

That's at best next year, and more likely 2019.

Again, Cashman and the front office are building a young and cheap juggernaut to fashion a dynasty around.  The Core Four times two or three - Bird, Sanchez, Judge, Torres, Andujar, Frazier, and more.

That's the long term plan.  That's the goal, guys, the proverbial promised land.

Let's not sell that tomorrow for a single good year.

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